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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and longer-term survival – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would lose seats, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Numerous observers believe that cultural shift will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”