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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant change with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.